An Economic Christmas Wish List
By Troy Madlom, CFA, Sr. Investment Analyst
For the first time since childhood, I’m putting together a Christmas wish list. But instead of wishing for toys and games, I’m outlining some economic hopes for 2026—grounded in the realities of today’s environment and the opportunities ahead. And much like the lists I made as a kid, this one includes a mix of practical hopes and aspirational long shots.
Wish #1: Greater certainty in trade policy
After the unexpected tariff announcement in April—and the rapid sequence of escalations, concessions, and temporary agreements that followed—I hope 2026 brings greater clarity and consistency in U.S. trade policy. Many companies, particularly small businesses, continue to cite tariff uncertainty as a major operational challenge.
Regardless of how the Supreme Court rules on the legality of certain Trump-era tariffs, it appears increasingly likely that tariff rates have peaked, especially as the administration shifts its focus toward affordability initiatives. Even if rates are not reduced, a more predictable policy environment would allow businesses to plan and execute with far more confidence.
Wish #2: Meaningful progress toward global conflict resolution
Although 2025 brought a resolution to the Israel–Hamas war, the turmoil in Ukraine and Venezuela continues to create humanitarian suffering and geopolitical uncertainty. An end to the Russia–Ukraine war would be significant not only for those directly affected but also for global energy markets and trade flows.
It could unlock the potential for targeted sanctions relief in Russia’s energy sector. And if Venezuela were to undergo a political transition, its oil production could rise meaningfully as well. Together, these developments might help to ease global energy prices and—in turn—support lower inflation and give central banks more flexibility to lower rates. While these developments would require complex diplomatic progress, the economic implications would be far-reaching.
Wish #3: Lower interest rates—supported by real economic stability
After peaking at 5.5% in September 2024, the Federal Reserve has reduced short-term interest rates to 3.75% (as of mid-December 2025). These rate cuts have provided welcome relief for consumers carrying revolving debt, as well as for smaller businesses that rely on floating-rate financing. Further gradual reductions in 2026 would offer an additional and sustained tailwind for borrowers.
Equally important, though, is why rates are lowered. The most constructive path forward would be one where rate cuts reflect continued progress on inflation and durable economic strength—not weakening demand, rising unemployment, or political pressure. A healthy rate environment is one that supports growth rather than compensates for deterioration.
Wish #4: A measurable acceleration in AI-driven productivity
It’s now been three years since the launch of ChatGPT, and since then both companies and investors have embraced artificial intelligence at an extraordinary pace. Venture capital funding has increasingly flowed toward AI-focused startups, while the largest technology firms have invested more than $100 billion in capital expenditures in the most recent quarter alone in pursuit of AI-driven growth. We are already seeing productivity gains in software development, customer support, research, and content creation. The question for 2026 is whether these early improvements translate into transformative, broad-based economic productivity. Breakthroughs in areas such as drug discovery, broad adoption of full self-driving vehicles, and personalized AI tutoring are all within sight. If realized, I hope these innovations support improved quality of life and new forms of value creation—without triggering sweeping layoffs from automation.
As adults, we recognize that not every wish will come true. But as we turn the page on 2025, it feels worth sharing the developments that could make 2026 a remarkable year.
Wishing you a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!